www.LonelyTrader.com FX Technicals

Note to self: Incorporate major MA studies in the support and resistance section. Rename support and resistance as Key Levels.

Replace EMA Studies with interest rate and economic studies...just need to figure out which indicators I want to watch...and it has to be no more than a six month outlook.

Move long term chart snapshot up to the window above where it currently is. Move the summary down to the snapshot window.

This page should be updated every week or as necessary. It should not be a burden on trading or other commitments.

Try to annotate charts and key levels with geopolitical and economic events.

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF

04 Feb 2007: The USDCHF is currently hovering mid-range, finding no friends either above or below the weekly range. Going into this week, the weekly R1 and S1 may again define the range unless fresh data from other base currencies goads the market into a breakout. The monthly pivot rests at 1.2375, in confluence with key range support.

Moving Average Studies (updated weekly)
EMA	Daily	Last	Delta	Price	Delta	Trend
200		1.2405
100		1.2365
55		1.2375
20		1.2455
10		1.2480
Comments: MAs in flux as price has bounced up from and confirmed the 200MA. This week the 55 EMA is the one to watch, with any dips to the 200MA being in confluence and, as they were last week, excellent buying opportunities.

USDCHF Support and Resistance		TOP \| EURUSD \| USDJPY \| GBPUSD
Key Level	Referents	Remarks
1.2825	Rally rejection from 3xtop.	Price pivot point serving as 04/06/06 support and 04/24/06 resistance.
1.2770	13OCT06 swing high.	Very significant failure swing on a rally after the 2005 triple top. Note engulfing candle.
1.2700	24OCT06 swing high.	Deep retrace rally of engulfing candle, with subsequent rejection.
1.2466	Weekly close.	Close mid-range, above this week's pivot.
1.2420	WS1 and range support.	20MA held here, with price extending below. Buy on dips, but keep PSL wide.
1.2270	Dec 05 consolidation high.	Sitting just below WS2 and 10MA 2% envelope support.
1.2110	Dec 05 consolidation low, Mpvt.	Buy a bounce. Sell a break.

Pivot Studies
1 month pivot		1 week pivot
MR3	1.3030	WR3	1.2660
MR2	1.2835	WR2	1.2595
MR1	1.2641	WR1	1.2531
Pivot	1.2375	Pivot	1.2455
MS1	1.2181	WS1	1.2391
MS2	1.1915	WS2	1.2315
MS3	1.1721	WS3	1.2251

Fibonacci Studies
03/12/85 - 04/19/95		10/26/00 - 12/30/04
100%	2.9150	100%	1.8309
76.4%	2.4890	76.4%	1.6652
61.8%	2.2255	61.8%	1.5627
50%	2.0125	50%	1.4798
38.2%	1.7995	38.2%	1.3969
23.6%	1.5360	23.6%	1.2944
0%	1.1100	0%	1.1287

USDCHF Screenshot

11 Feb 2007: The Sterling sell off continued last week, with the close still well off of the Jan 23 high. Price continues to rest mid-range but the pullback looks set to again pull the pair lower. Inflationary data for the GBP will weigh this week, with lots of event-driven action from the other majors as well.

Moving Average Studies (updated weekly)
EMA	Daily	Last	Delta	Price	Delta	Trend
200		1.9046
100		1.9360
55		1.9526
20		1.9632
10		1.9649
Comments: Proper order is maintained, but the shorter term MAs are having little supportive effect. A double top looks to have formed, but will need to break support at 1.9250. First, however, it must get through the 55 and 100 EMAs. Look for pressure again at the 55 EMA.

GBPUSD Support and Resistance		TOP \| EURUSD \| USDJPY \| USDCHF
Key Level	Referents	Remarks
1.9910/20	23JAN07 range high	Take profit. Buy a break.
1.9850	December swing high.	Take profit. Sell a failure.
1.9750	Internal range resistance.	Buy a break above to 1.9850.
1.9652	Weekly close.	Mid-range of the Dec / Jan consolidation.
1.9500	55 MA support.	Sell a break.
1.9350	Anticipated 100 MA support.	Take profit on a bounce. Sell a break.
1.9255	08JAN07 swing low.	Take profit on a bounce. Sell a break to 200 MA.

Pivot Studies
1 month pivot		1 week pivot
MR3	2.0566	WR3	2.0008
MR2	2.0257	WR2	1.9846
MR1	1.9949	WR1	1.9685
Pivot	1.9605	Pivot	1.9571
MS1	1.9297	WS1	1.9410
MS2	1.8953	WS2	1.9296
MS3	1.8645	WS3	1.9135

Fibonacci Studies
02/27/85 - 09/08/92		04/03/06 - 12/01/06
0%	2.0110	0%	1.9846
23.6%	1.7833	23.6%	1.9233
38.2%	1.6425	38.2%	1.8854
50%	1.5287	50%	1.8548
61.8%	1.4148	61.8%	1.8241
76.4%	1.2740	76.4%	1.7862
100%	1.0463	100%	1.7249

GBPUSD Screenshot

11 Feb 2007: EURUSD closed above 1.29 again, failing to push below amidst mixed US data. The daily engulfing on the 1.29 handle suggests a break below will r equire a major USD-positive or EUR-negative event.

Moving Average Studies (updated weekly)
EMA	Daily	Last	Delta	Price	Delta	Trend
200		1.2825
100		1.2953
55		1.2999
20		1.2980
10		1.2972
Comments: The USD has gained a lot of ground since the beginning of December, but there will likely be vigorous defense of the 1.28 handle. A break below 1.2875 is a big event, but a sustained break of 1.28 will leave room for a downside test of 1.25, the 50% fib of the Oct 00 to Dec 04 move.

EURUSD Support and Resistance		USDJPY \| GBPUSD \| USDCHF
Key Level	Referents	Remarks
1.3365/70	Dec 3 failure swing.	Range high. Take Profit. Buy a break.
1.3285	Jan 1 failure swing.	Take profit. Sell a failure.
1.3050/60	Key weekly range resistance.	Buy break above. This is a significant pivot area.
1.3018	Weekly close.	Mixed data week with close mid-range.
1.2875/65	Key weekly range support.	Sell stops below.
1.2800	200 MA support.	Take profit. Buy a bounce.
1.2715	38% fib 11/05-12/06.	Consolidation mid-range. Buy a bounce. Sell a break to 1.25.

Pivot Studies
1 month pivot		1 week pivot
MR3	1.3726	WR3	1.3173
MR2	1.3491	WR2	1.3121
MR1	1.3257	WR1	1.3070
Pivot	1.3061	Pivot	1.2991
MS1	1.2827	WS1	1.2940
MS2	1.2631	WS2	1.2861
MS3	1.2397	WS3	1.2810

Fibonacci Studies
03/08/95 - 10/2600		10/26/00 - 12/30/04
100%	1.4535	0%	1.3668
76.4%	1.3046	23.6%	1.2383
61.8%	1.2125	38.2%	1.1589
50%	1.1380	50%	1.0947
38.2%	1.0635	61.8%	1.0304
23.6%	0.9714	76.4%	0.9510
0%	0.8225	100%	0.8225

EURUSD Screenshot

11 Feb 2007: USDJPY is putting more pressure on the 05DEC05 top and continues to threaten to break 122. The market was right to be circumspect about the G7/G8 meeting over the weekend, as the Europeans failed to convince the US and Japan of the need to take action against JPY weakness. Record JPY short specs continue in force.

Moving Average Studies (updated weekly)
EMA	Daily	Last	Delta	Price	Delta	Trend
200		117.68
100		118.74
55		119.59
20		120.84
10		121.16
Comments: Proper order maintained, the 20 EMA fell and price looks set to test the 55 EMA. The 10 EMA now provides resistance. With recent talk of the need to support the JPY, expect more attacks on 122.00 during the quieter trading hours when the market is thin.

USDJPY Support and Resistance		TOP \| EURUSD \| GBPUSD \| USDCHF
Key Level	Referents	Remarks
125.50/60	05DEC02 swing high.	Sell a failure. Buy a break.
124.00/10	11DEC02 swing high.	Flat on a failure. Buy a break.
122.70	MR1/WR1 and 10MA env. res.	Key pivot resistance. Buy stops above.
122.02	Weekly close.	122.00 holding despite Merkel comments.
120.15/10	25JAN07 swing low.	The bounce from comments out of Davos again held last week.
118.50/00	50% fib, 05JAN07 swing low.	Flat on a bounce at 118.00. Sell a break.
117.50	200 MA support.	Flat on a bounce. Sell a break to 116.50.

Pivot Studies
1 month pivot		1 week pivot
MR3	126.39	WR3	124.20
MR2	124.54	WR2	123.47
MR1	122.70	WR1	122.74
Pivot	120.33	Pivot	121.35
MS1	118.49	WS1	120.62
MS2	116.12	WS2	119.23
MS3	114.28	WS3	118.50

Fibonacci Studies
01/31/02 - 01/17/05		01/17/05 - 12/05/05
100%	135.19	0%	121.38
76.4%	127.27	23.6%	116.72
61.8%	122.38	38.2%	113.84
50%	118.42	50%	111.52
38.2%	114.46	61.8%	109.19
23.6%	109.57	76.4%	106.31
0%	101.65	100%	101.65

USDJPY Screenshot